It’s a pretty good estimate but my only issue with it is that it heavily assumes Yale and Harvard waitlist the same amount of apps. As you said, A2C and CC have heavy competitive biases that could account for their similar percentage, as opposed to colleges themselves waitlisting the same amount of applicants. The flaw in my calculation is the real meaning of the yield rate. (including waitlisted accepted number or?) I didn’t go looking up the Awesome 39 years of 1981 2020 Motley Crue thank You for the memories signature shirt data of the true original yield by dividing by real data. But the calculation does give a rough estimate I believe because there is a significant difference in yield rate between YP and H.
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(which makes sense because that’s what waitlist is used for, to fill in the people that won’t attend). Yale accepted around 2300 students this year, and to use your data since they have a fairly stable waitlist size each year, there will be 1290 waitlisted students. The students that won’t attend should be around 2300*0.3 = 690. Let’s set the standard as n = 1290/690 = 1.869. If we apply this to Harvard. 1950 * 0.2 *1.869 = 729 people. Similar to Yale, though, I am not sure about the z-list stuff for legacy at Yale. I think Awesome 39 years of 1981 2020 Motley Crue thank You for the memories signature shirt to take 50 people off, there would be around 650 – 700 people on the waitlist.
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Wow, that’s an approach that’s very different, but makes a lot of sense! I think one problem is that universities can use waitlists entirely differently. Some might keep it purposefully short, while others make it longer than it needs to be (ex. Some rumors say Harvard has “courtesy waitlists” but this hasn’t been verified) which will change the 1.869 constant. Of course, these types of institutional differences are impossible for anyone to know, so that’s a problem any type of approximation would have. Thanks for sharing!Good point. The truth is, there’s so much that’s impossible to know about the Awesome 39 years of 1981 2020 Motley Crue thank You for the memories signature shirt practices at each of these schools. This is just a prediction based on the data we have available, but there’s definitely a lot of missing factors.